TEFAF Maastricht and the Art Market’s Flight to Certainty

Where is the art market headed in 2026? Is Certainty Truly Certain?

Yuval Aluf

Image courtesy of TEFAF.

By mid-afternoon on the preview day of TEFAF Maastricht, small red dots begin to appear. One by one, they mark the walls of the fair: beside an Old Master portrait, next to a glazed Egyptian bronze, on the label of a twentieth-century sculpture. Dealers lean toward collectors in low conversations; champagne glasses clink, waiters balance trays between the vitrines. Between polished vitrines and darkened stands, the fair unfolds in a steady rhythm of exchange. Across the Maastricht Exhibition and Congress Centre, nearly 270 galleries from more than 20 countries have gathered to present works spanning 7,000 years of art history, from antiquities to contemporary craft. Beneath the glass ceiling and floating flower beads lies one of the most carefully constructed marketplaces in the global art trade.

The fair arrives at a moment of recalibration for the art world. According to the latest Art Market Report published by UBS and Art Basel, the global art market reached an estimated $65 billion in sales, but overall activity declined by around 4% year-on-year as economic uncertainty and higher interest rates dampened speculative buying. The report also highlights an increasing concentration of value at the very top of the market: works priced above $10 million accounted for a growing share of auction turnover, even as lower price segments softened. Rather than signalling a temporary contraction, this points to a broader structural shift, as the market adjusts to new economic realities and begins to reconsider its foundations.

Analysis from the Artnet Intelligence Report paints a similar picture. Global auction sales fell to approximately $10.2 billion in 2024, a decline of roughly 27% from the previous year, with the contraction particularly evident in the contemporary sector, which had surged during the speculative boom of the early 2020s. At the same time, the report noted that blue-chip artists and historically established categories proved far more resilient, reinforcing a widening gap between speculative emerging names and artists with long-standing institutional recognition. Together, these reports suggest a broader shift in collecting behaviour. After a decade marked by rapid price inflation in contemporary art and a general rise in interest, many buyers are becoming increasingly selective, focusing resources on fewer acquisitions with stronger historical provenance and, ideally, institutional validation. The result is what analysts frequently describe as a “flight to certainty”, a move toward works whose value is anchored not only in market momentum but in scholarship, provenance and museum recognition, positioned as a “safe haven” in an increasingly uncertain market. This shift also aligns with recent reports noting a growing interest among collectors in more intentional, research-led approaches to acquisition.

In that context, TEFAF Maastricht occupies a distinctive position. Unlike contemporary-focused fairs such as Art Basel or Frieze London, Maastricht foregrounds scholarship and historical depth as the foundation of its market. The fair is widely known for attracting museum directors, curators and seasoned collectors who travel specifically for its reputation for quality and expertise. As Philippe Perrin, director of Galerie Perrin, puts it, the fair functions as “a fair by and for art dealers,” a place where works are evaluated as much through scholarship as through price. Before the fair opens, every object presented at TEFAF Maastricht passes through an extensive vetting process involving more than 250 international specialists, from museum curators to conservators and scientists. The system, designed to assess attribution, authenticity and condition, helps explain why the fair has long been seen as one of the art market’s most trusted environments for high-value transactions.

In that context, TEFAF Maastricht offers a useful lens through which to examine how collectors are navigating a more cautious market. Across the fair, dealers describe a growing emphasis on quality, scholarship and institutional recognition as part of a broader search for stability in a market where speculation can no longer dominate the conversation. Walking through the fair, wall labels frequently include detailed provenance chains, references to academic publications and exhibition histories. In many cases, the documentation occupies nearly as much space as the artwork’s description, reinforcing the sense that knowledge and research are integral to the object’s value. This emphasis on provenance also reflects broader frameworks, such as the 1970 UNESCO Convention, which has increasingly been adopted as a benchmark for evaluating antiquities within the international market. The shift is not only discursive but visual: the fair increasingly adopts the display language of the museum, where authority is constructed through documentation, context, and careful framing.

Dealers at the fair are keenly aware of this dynamic. For many, the current market is less defined by speculation than by selectivity. Michael Adler, Antiquities Specialist at Colnaghi, describes the moment as one in which both buyers and sellers have become increasingly careful. “Collectors are selective,” he explains. “But so are we. We focus above all on quality.” At the highest level of the market, Adler suggests, buyers are highly informed. “The people at this part of the market know what they’re doing,” he says. Other dealers point to similar patterns in the types of works attracting attention. Edmondo Robilant, co-founder of Robilant + Voena, emphasises that clarity and confidence remain crucial for collectors. “Works in very good condition with pretty certain attributions and with pleasing subjects are always the easiest things to sell,” he notes. While provenance can strengthen a work’s appeal, Robilant suggests that collectors ultimately respond first to the strength of the object itself.

Image courtesy of TEFAF.

The strong presence of museums at TEFAF Maastricht further reinforces the fair’s scholarly atmosphere. Dealers frequently report visits from curators and acquisition committees during the opening days. Matthew Travers, Managing Director at Piano Nobile, describes a steady flow of institutional interest throughout the fair. “We’ve been very pleased with the number of museums visiting,” he says. “There’s a real sense of connoisseurship amongst both the galleries and the collector base here.” This relationship between scholarship and commerce is particularly visible in sectors such as antiquities. At the stand of Galerie Chenel, an Egyptian bust with an extensive provenance attracted significant attention from both private collectors and museum representatives. Ollivier Chenel, co-owner of Galerie Chenel, notes that “the provenance and the research are crucial for museums.” Detailed documentation not only allows institutions to acquire works but also enables objects to circulate safely through the international market. “The more provenance and documentation you have… the more secure the sale.”

The fair’s structure also encourages collectors to think beyond a single period or category. Rupert Maas, Director of The Maas Gallery, observes that many collectors today are building collections that move across cultures and centuries. “More and more collectors are collecting across thousands of years and thousands of miles,” he says, noting that buyers are increasingly interested in placing works within broader historical narratives. This tendency also resonates with broader art-historical discussions around the “global turn”, suggesting that shifts in collecting practices may reflect a move away from linear, Eurocentric narratives toward more interconnected histories.

For Maas, themes such as social realism retain their appeal precisely because they remain legible across cultures and periods, allowing works to resonate with collectors from different backgrounds. Even contemporary galleries participating in the fair often frame their artists through institutional recognition. At Sarah Myerscough Gallery, which focuses on contemporary craft and material-based practices, many of the artists presented are already represented in museum collections. Their presence at TEFAF situates contemporary work within a longer continuum of artistic production rather than within a purely speculative market. Yet not all dealers view this system as entirely stable. Philippe Perrin argues that the rising costs of participating in major international fairs are placing increasing pressure on even established galleries. “Fairs are becoming extremely expensive,” he notes, suggesting that the proliferation of global art fairs is forcing dealers to reconsider how sustainable the current model may be. “I fear for the younger generation; they will need to consider other models.” 

For younger dealers in particular, entering this circuit can be increasingly difficult, raising broader questions about how the structure of the fair system might evolve. His observation is particularly striking given the rapid expansion of the fair circuit in recent years. This pressure arises within a fair system that, despite pandemic disruption, has expanded once again in recent years, rising by roughly 13% from pandemic-era levels to 2024, then contracting by around 2% in 2025, underscoring a recovery marked by instability rather than sustained growth. At the same time, art fairs have become a central component of the market, accounting for around 35% of dealer sales. Rising operational costs and uneven performance across sectors are also forcing galleries to adopt more strategic and selective approaches to remain viable.

His observation reveals a central tension underlying the fair. While collectors appear increasingly drawn to works that promise stability, supported by scholarship, provenance and institutional validation, the infrastructure that produces this confidence is itself becoming more costly and competitive to maintain. The very mechanisms that create the appearance of certainty are sustained by a system under mounting economic pressure. Walking through the stands, the fair at times begins to resemble not just a marketplace, but a temporary museum display: carefully spaced objects, detailed labels, and a strong emphasis on historical context echo the visual language of institutional presentation. Yet this resemblance is not neutral. The museum's authority is carefully staged, lending the market an appearance of stability that is, in part, constructed. In a moment defined by caution, TEFAF does not simply reflect the search for certainty; it actively produces it- even as the conditions that sustain it become increasingly fragile.

Data and market insights referenced from the Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report, the Artnet Intelligence Report, and TEFAF’s Economic Impact Report.